Cowan is also predicting that April 2009 sales will reach $13.37billion, which represents a year-on-year monthly sales growth of -29.4 percent , again a slight improvement of March’s result (-31.5 percent) and also slight better than 2009’s YTD sales growth of -29.9 percent.
Cowan, who works with actual monthly global semiconductor sales numbers gathered and published by the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics organization, uses linear regression analysis of historical data to produce a forecast of worldwide semiconductor sales looking forward over the next five quarters.
For the quarters from Q1 2009 to Q1 2010, Cowan now suggests that sales will be $44.02 billion, $44.57 billion, $47.94 billion, $47.45 billion and $45.28 billion. This equates to year-on-year percentage growth rates of -29.9, -31.1, -30.4, -9.1 and 2.8.
Cowan still believes the chip market will not return to year-on-year growth until Q1 2010.
“Additionally, the model has “revealed” its first glimpse of 2Q10 sales forecast estimate. The corresponding year-on-year sales growth (2Q10 versus 2Q09) is strongly positive (at +14.4 percent) indicating the start of a 2010 positive turn around for the industry compared to what the model is predicting for the remaining three quarters of this year,” Cowan says in a note.
Estimated second quarter 2010 sales are put at $50.99 billion, with sales of $96.27 billion for the second half of next year.
LONDON — Long-time analyst of semiconductor market statistics Mike Cowan has revised his 2009 semiconductor annual market estimate to $183.99 billion, equivalent to a market contraction of 26 percent, a slight improvement on his previous forecast that year-on-year decline in shipments would be 26.8 percent.
Archived on Wed, 11/11/2009 – 17:27